I have been so busy that I have not been able to do an NFL Mock Draft for a couple of months, but I am definitely going to have the laptop in front of me tonight to give instant feedback as the draft unfolds. This is one of the most unpredictable drafts ever. We still do not know who will be the first overall pick, and any and every pick could be traded. It would have been even more pointless then ever to do a mock draft.
One thing we know for sure is that ESPN is going to obsess over the quarterbacks and ignore the fact that this is one of the best drafts of all time for offensive lineman. There is a possibility that six offensive lineman can come off the board within the first eleven picks. Defensive lineman and pass rushers will be equally represented.
I do think that up to four quarterbacks could come off the board in round one as teams like the Jaguars, Eagles, Jets and Bills move up and down the board to select their future signal callers.
Make sure to bookmark this page and hit refresh often tonight as I give instant analysis and thoughts as picks are made. Enjoy the draft!
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1. Kansas City Chiefs
Projected Pick: OT Eric Fisher, Central Michigan
Actual Pick: OT Eric Fisher, Central Michigan
For months this pick was thought to be Luke Joeckel, but Fisher overtook him late and the number one overall pick is a Chippewah. How about that? Fisher is very athletic and used the pre draft process to rise and rise up the board. There is concern that he did not face elite competition playing for Central Michigan, but showed up big time when they played BCS schools. He is not your prototypical number one pick but the best players in this draft are offensive lineman, and you have to draft from the pool of guys available. Fisher will be the Chiefs starting left tackle for the next decade, whether it is in 2013 or 2014 when Branden Albert moves on.
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2. Jacksonville Jaguars
Projected Pick: OT Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M
Actual Pick: OT Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M
I think Dion Jordan would have been a better fit but the Jaguars are perhaps the least talented team in the NFL, so you can't get mad at the new GM drafting the best player available. Joeckel will push Eugene Monroe over to the right side and give the Jaguars a great tackle duo. Joeckel isn't quite as athletic as Eric Fisher, but he is stronger and a better run blocker. Fisher vs. Joeckel will be a hot debate for years. There is still a lot of work to be done in Jacksonville, but they drafted a heck of a player.
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3. Miami Dolphins
Projected Pick: OT Lane Johnson, Oklahoma
Actual Pick: DE/OLB Dion Jordan, Oregon
As a Dolphins fan, I am not sure what to think about this. The desperate Jeff Ireland most likely gave up way too much to move up and take Jordan, but Jordan has been one of my favorite players in this draft. He will most likely play the old Jason Taylor role for the Dolphins, using his speed and quickness to get to the quarterback. He can also drop back into coverage. I am not sure if he is a player worth trading way up for, but it is what it is.
Edit: Miami simply gave up their second rounder to move up. That isn't that bad if Miami thinks Jordan can be the next Jason Taylor.
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4. Philadelphia Eagles
Projected Pick: DT Star Lotulelei, Utah
Actual Pick: OT Lane Johnson, Oklahoma
Offensive tackle was probably the most popular mocked position to the Eagles these last few months, and alas, Philadelphia takes Lane Johnson. Johnson's combine results shot him up the board, and he has the athleticism to adequately handle Chip Kelly's up tempo offense. He will probably start out at right tackle, which is actually the side that protects Michael Vick's blind side. Expect the offensive lineman to keep coming off the board early and often.
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5. Detroit Lions
Projected Pick: DE Ezekiel Ansah, BYU
Actual Pick: DE Ezekiel Ansah, BYU
With the offensive tackles flying off the board, Ansah was the only player remaining that made sense for the Lions. Ansah's story is well known. He just started playing football coming over from Ghana. He was not a factor whatsoever until this past season for the Cougars, but a dominating Senior Bowl and amazing workouts shot him up into the top five. He has the talent to be one of the best pass rushers in the NFL, and in a draft this weak at the top, he is worth the fifth overall selection.
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6. Cleveland Browns
Projected Pick: OLB Barkevious Mingo, LSU
Actual Pick: OLB Barkevious Mingo, LSU
This is a pick the old Browns regime would never have made. Mingo was disappointing as a junior, but flashes amazing pass rushing potential. The Browns identified pass rush as a major need and have added Paul Kruger and now Mingo to be their new 3-4 outside linebackers. I think Mingo has major bust potential and could be the next Aaron Maybin, but he has the ability to be a good one.
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7. Arizona Cardinals
Projected Pick: OT DJ Fluker, Alabama
Actual Pick: OG Jonathan Cooper, North Carolina
Right position, wrong player. We have been hearing that these guards would get drafted very high, and it looks like that will happen. Bad teams are bucking NFL trends and going with the best player available. Cooper is a stud, a mauler who will greatly improve the Cardinals offensive line. Arizona likes Levi Brown and Bobby Massie on the outside, and they massively upgrade the interior.
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8. St. Louis Rams
Projected Pick: WR Tavon Austin, West Virginia
Actual Pick: WR Tavon Austin, West Virginia
Jeff Fisher gained a ton of picks by dealing out of the Robert Griffin III spot, and use some of that ammunition to move up and draft this drafts most explosive offensive weapon. There is no doubt that he offers home run potential, similar to the top ten CJ Spiller pick a few years ago. I worry about his size and he will be limited to the slot in the NFL, but in today's NFL the slot is basically another starting wideout. Jeff Fisher can get creative and use him similar to the way Percy Harvin was used in Minnesota. After years and years, the Rams finally select a wideout in the first round.
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9. New York Jets
Projected Pick: DT Star Lotulelei, Utah
Actual Pick: CB Dee Milliner, Alabama
The Jets have holes all over the place, so whoever they took would have been a nice selection. The late DJ Hayden hype aside, Milliner was always clearly the best cornerback in the NFL. He will immediately slide into the #2 spot opposite Antonio Cromartie. ESPN is trying to drum up comparisons to Darrelle Revis, but that's just poppycock. Milliner is very athletic but needs to work on his ball skills. He is raw.
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10. Tennessee Titans
Projected Pick: OG Chance Warmack, Alabama
Actual Pick: OG Chance Warmack, Alabama
That is five offensive lineman within the first ten picks, and DJ Fluker will probably be the next pick. Chris Johnson threw the offensive line under the bus following the season and Tennessee listened. Insert Andy Levitre and Chance Warmack. The Titans offensive line is now a major strength, and CJ2.0YPC is out of excuses.
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11. San Diego Chargers
Projected Pick: OT DJ Fluker, Alabama
Actual Pick:OT DJ Fluker, Alabama
This was the easiest pick for me to guess all draft. The Chargers hold tight and get lucky to land the last immediate starting offensive lineman in the first round. Fluker will strictly be limited to right tackle and may have to move inside to guard. The Chargers line is in shambles and they had to come out of the first round with someone to start somewhere.
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12. Oakland Raiders
Projected Pick: DT Star Lotulelei, Utah
Actual Pick: CB DJ Hayden, Houston
Hayden was this drafts late riser, with rumblings that the Raiders were going to take him at number three overall. Oakland adds a second round pick and still gets their man. Hayden has recovered from a life threatening heart injury and should be good to go. He is not a great tackler but should collect some interceptions. As long as the Raiders did not go with a quarterback, they were going to upgrade their pathetic roster no matter who they took. The Raiders have great success drafting cornerbacks in the first round.
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13. New York Jets
Projected Pick: TE Tyler Eifert, Notre Dame
Actual Pick: DT Sheldon Richardson, Missouri
The Jets could have had Star Lotulelei at nose, or Jarvis Jones to upgrade the pass rush, or even Tyler Eifert to help out in the passing game. Instead they take a guy who doesn't really have a spot along their line. I do not see him as a good fit as a 3-4 nose tackle, so Muhammad Wilkerson, who played at a pro bowl level at end last year, will have to move inside. Puzzling pick by the Jets who had so many other needs.
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14. Carolina Panthers
Projected Pick: DT Star Lotulelei, Utah
Actual Pick: DT Star Lotulelei, Utah
The Panthers are the early winners of this draft, and they did nothing but sit back and wait for a stud who fills their biggest need to fall right into their lap. Teams were obviously scared off by the heart issues, and maybe they wanted more pass rush out of their first round pick, but Lotulelei will be a stud against the run and help the talented Panthers ends get to the quarterback. He might have been a reach in the top five but he is amazing value here.
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15. New Orleans Saints
Projected Pick: OLB Jarvis Jones, Georgia
Actual Pick: S Kenny Vaccaro, Texas
As long as the Saints took a defender, their team was going to be much improved. The Saints safeties, like the rest of their defense, was putrid. Vaccaro is a hard hitter who attacks ball carriers like a linebacker. He needs to improve his ball skills, but he should be an instant starter for the Saints.
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16. Buffalo Bills
Projected Pick: QB Ryan Nassib, Syracuse
Actual Pick: QB EJ Manuel, Florida State
I had Manuel mocked to the Bills in the first round quite a bit during my previous mocks. I always had a suspicion that he would wind up being taken in the first round, but I am still surprised they drafted him over Nassib. Manuel has great size and a good arm, but his decision making and accuracy is a concern. He has the talent to be a quality starting quarterback in the NFL. With all of the quarterbacks still on the board, it will be interesting to see if Buffalo made the right choice.
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17. Pittsburgh Steelers
Projected Pick: OLB Jarvis Jones, Georgia
Actual Pick: OLB Jarvis Jones, Georgia
Jones has been popularly mocked to the Steelers for months, and to no surprise the Steelers land a stud who falls because of bad combine workouts. There is no doubt in my mind that Jones will be a future pro bowler and the next great Pittsburgh Steeler pass rusher. Good teams stay good because of draft picks like this.
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18. San Francisco 49ers
Projected Pick: DT Sharrif Floyd, Florida
Actual Pick: S Eric Reid, LSU
The 49ers were the most likely team to trade up because they have a plethora of picks that they weren't going to use. Reid might be somewhat of a reach here but the Niners are a great judge of talent. Reid has great size and if he can knock some injury concerns has great potential. With teams like the Rams and Bengals in need of a safety, Reid probably would not have been there at pick 31.
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19. New York Giants
Projected Pick: LB Alec Ogletree, Georgia
Actual Pick: OG/OT Justin Pugh, Syracuse
With the way offensive lineman are flying off the board, Pugh cannot be considered a reach here. The Giants identified the right side of the line as a major weak spot and find help here. Pugh is too small to hold up at left tackle, but he should be able to hold his own at right tackle, or move inside and handle guard.
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20. Chicago Bears
Projected Pick: TE Tyler Eifert, Notre Dame
Actual Pick: OG/OT Kyle Long, Oregon
The Bears used lack of offense as an excuse to can Lovie Smith, so I knew they would go offense here. I did not expect Long, who is still a big time project. He has the size to eventually play tackle, but will probably take over for Lance Louis at guard. There is a need there. I still think this is a reach.
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21. Cincinnati Bengals
Projected Pick: LB Alec Ogletree, Georgia
Actual Pick: TE Tyler Eifert, Notre Dame
This is a huge surprise to me. I love it though. Cincinnati has tried to surround Andy Dalton with weapons. Eifert is a better player then any of the wide receivers, so why not take a tight end? They now have Eifert to go with Jermaine Gresham. The Patriots have shown you can be successful with two tight ends. The Bengals have Gresham, Eifert and AJ Green. No excuses for Dalton now.
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22. Atlanta Falcons
Projected Pick: DE Bjoern Werner, Florida State
Actual Pick: CB Desmond Trufant, Washington
The Falcons lost Dunta Robinson and Brent Grimes during the off season, so cornerback was an obvious need. I wonder if Trufant is a true number one corner, but he solidified his first round with a nice pre draft process. He has a ton of experience and is the third Trufant brother to play in the NFL, so he has the blood lines.
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23. Minnesota Vikings
Projected Pick: DT Sharrif Floyd, Florida
Actual Pick: DT Sharrif Floyd, Florida
I always wondered why Floyd was considered a top five pick. He is talented but was an underachiever during his Florida career. He is very good value here. Good against the run and decent rushing the passer, he should be a long time starting tackle for the Vikings.
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24. Indianapolis Colts
Projected Pick: CB Xavier Rhodes, Florida State
Actual Pick: DE/OLB Bjoern Werner, Florida State
Right school, wrong player. Werner is a hard worker and should develop into a quality end, but I am not sure he has the speed and cover skills to hold up as a 3-4 outside linebacker. He could bulk up and play end, but if he ends up at linebacker, he still will be better then Erik Walden.
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25. Minnesota Vikings
Projected Pick: CB Xavier Rhodes, Florida State
Actual Pick: CB Xavier Rhodes, Florida State
Rhodes is still a work in progress but I think this is a much much better pick then Manti Te'o. Rhodes has good size and is a fine press corner. The Vikings will hope he can be what Chris Cook has been unable to be.
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26. Green Bay Packers
Projected Pick: OT Menelik Watson, Florida State
Actual Pick: DE Datone Jones, UCLA
Jones was a late bloomer who solidified a first round grade with his toughness and versatility. The Packers needed to continue to draft defenders as they look to improve a terrible unit. Jones has the frame to bulk up and hold his own as a 3-4 end, and should take over for Ryan Pickett in a year or two.
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27. Houston Texans
Projected Pick: WR DeAndre Hopkins, Clemson
Actual Pick: WR DeAndre Hopkins, Clemson
Wide receiver has been popularly mocked to the Texans, and for good reason. Houston finally drafts a solid compliment to Andre Johnson. Hopkins put up huge numbers for Clemson, and has good strength and nice speed. I think he will end up being the best receiver in this draft. Even better then Tavon Austin.
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28. Denver Broncos
Projected Pick: DT Sylvester Williams, North Carolina
Actual Pick: DT Sylvester Williams, North Carolina
Like the Steelers, Texans and Packers, the Broncos stay put and land an instant starter late in the first round. Williams has great size and is a good all around tackle. Defensive tackle has been a big time sore spot for Denver for years, and should become an instant starter.
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29. Minnesota Vikings
Projected Pick: LB Manti Te'o, Notre Dame
Actual Pick: WR Cordarrelle Patterson, Tennessee
The Vikings have passed on NFL Network's love child Manti Te'o three times, all for better prospects. Patterson is a big time project but has the potential to be the best receiver in the draft. He passes the eyeball test with great strength and speed. Scouts very politely called him "dumb" during the pre draft process, and he will be a major work in progress. The Vikings gave up a ton to get him, but they had to come out of this draft with a receiver. Greg Jennings simply is not enough.
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30. St. Louis Rams
Projected Pick: S Jonathan Cyprien, Florida International
Actual Pick: LB Alec Ogletree, Georgia
The Rams hit a home run with Janoris Jenkins in the second round last year, so they try to strike gold with another talented player with character concerns here. Ogletree would make a very nice fit on the weak side next to James Laurinitis. He is very quick and athletic. Of course, it is the off the field concerns that caused him to fall this far. Scouts described him as a "trainwreck" off the field. Like Jenkins, you will always be concerned that he will "immature" himself out of the league.
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31. Dallas Cowboys
Projected Pick: S Jonathan Cyprien, Florida International
Actual Pick: OG/C Travis Frederick, Wisconsin
Wisconsin has a great track record for interior lineman. Gabe Carimi, Kevin Zeitler, Peter Konz and now Frederick. He is the ninth offensive lineman to go in the first round. After Jonathan Cooper and Chance Warmack went off the board, the Cowboys decided to trade down but still find an upgrade for their line. Frederick can play guard or center but will probably handle the middle for Dallas.
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32. Baltimore Ravens
Projected Pick: S Matt Elam, Florida
Actual Pick: S Matt Elam, Florida
Like Ed Reed, Elam is a compact, hard hitting safety from a Florida school. He is a perfect replacement for Reed and tremendous value here. He should step right in and keep it moving. Don't expect much of a drop off as Reed was more name then game in 2012. Ozzie Newsome does it again.
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I don't think anyone followed this as I updated live, but hopefully a few people read it throughout the night. Enjoy!
One thing we know for sure is that ESPN is going to obsess over the quarterbacks and ignore the fact that this is one of the best drafts of all time for offensive lineman. There is a possibility that six offensive lineman can come off the board within the first eleven picks. Defensive lineman and pass rushers will be equally represented.
I do think that up to four quarterbacks could come off the board in round one as teams like the Jaguars, Eagles, Jets and Bills move up and down the board to select their future signal callers.
Make sure to bookmark this page and hit refresh often tonight as I give instant analysis and thoughts as picks are made. Enjoy the draft!
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Projected Pick: OT Eric Fisher, Central Michigan
Actual Pick: OT Eric Fisher, Central Michigan
For months this pick was thought to be Luke Joeckel, but Fisher overtook him late and the number one overall pick is a Chippewah. How about that? Fisher is very athletic and used the pre draft process to rise and rise up the board. There is concern that he did not face elite competition playing for Central Michigan, but showed up big time when they played BCS schools. He is not your prototypical number one pick but the best players in this draft are offensive lineman, and you have to draft from the pool of guys available. Fisher will be the Chiefs starting left tackle for the next decade, whether it is in 2013 or 2014 when Branden Albert moves on.
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Projected Pick: OT Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M
Actual Pick: OT Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M
I think Dion Jordan would have been a better fit but the Jaguars are perhaps the least talented team in the NFL, so you can't get mad at the new GM drafting the best player available. Joeckel will push Eugene Monroe over to the right side and give the Jaguars a great tackle duo. Joeckel isn't quite as athletic as Eric Fisher, but he is stronger and a better run blocker. Fisher vs. Joeckel will be a hot debate for years. There is still a lot of work to be done in Jacksonville, but they drafted a heck of a player.
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Projected Pick: OT Lane Johnson, Oklahoma
Actual Pick: DE/OLB Dion Jordan, Oregon
As a Dolphins fan, I am not sure what to think about this. The desperate Jeff Ireland most likely gave up way too much to move up and take Jordan, but Jordan has been one of my favorite players in this draft. He will most likely play the old Jason Taylor role for the Dolphins, using his speed and quickness to get to the quarterback. He can also drop back into coverage. I am not sure if he is a player worth trading way up for, but it is what it is.
Edit: Miami simply gave up their second rounder to move up. That isn't that bad if Miami thinks Jordan can be the next Jason Taylor.
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Projected Pick: DT Star Lotulelei, Utah
Actual Pick: OT Lane Johnson, Oklahoma
Offensive tackle was probably the most popular mocked position to the Eagles these last few months, and alas, Philadelphia takes Lane Johnson. Johnson's combine results shot him up the board, and he has the athleticism to adequately handle Chip Kelly's up tempo offense. He will probably start out at right tackle, which is actually the side that protects Michael Vick's blind side. Expect the offensive lineman to keep coming off the board early and often.
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Projected Pick: DE Ezekiel Ansah, BYU
Actual Pick: DE Ezekiel Ansah, BYU
With the offensive tackles flying off the board, Ansah was the only player remaining that made sense for the Lions. Ansah's story is well known. He just started playing football coming over from Ghana. He was not a factor whatsoever until this past season for the Cougars, but a dominating Senior Bowl and amazing workouts shot him up into the top five. He has the talent to be one of the best pass rushers in the NFL, and in a draft this weak at the top, he is worth the fifth overall selection.
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Projected Pick: OLB Barkevious Mingo, LSU
Actual Pick: OLB Barkevious Mingo, LSU
This is a pick the old Browns regime would never have made. Mingo was disappointing as a junior, but flashes amazing pass rushing potential. The Browns identified pass rush as a major need and have added Paul Kruger and now Mingo to be their new 3-4 outside linebackers. I think Mingo has major bust potential and could be the next Aaron Maybin, but he has the ability to be a good one.
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Projected Pick: OT DJ Fluker, Alabama
Actual Pick: OG Jonathan Cooper, North Carolina
Right position, wrong player. We have been hearing that these guards would get drafted very high, and it looks like that will happen. Bad teams are bucking NFL trends and going with the best player available. Cooper is a stud, a mauler who will greatly improve the Cardinals offensive line. Arizona likes Levi Brown and Bobby Massie on the outside, and they massively upgrade the interior.
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Projected Pick: WR Tavon Austin, West Virginia
Actual Pick: WR Tavon Austin, West Virginia
Jeff Fisher gained a ton of picks by dealing out of the Robert Griffin III spot, and use some of that ammunition to move up and draft this drafts most explosive offensive weapon. There is no doubt that he offers home run potential, similar to the top ten CJ Spiller pick a few years ago. I worry about his size and he will be limited to the slot in the NFL, but in today's NFL the slot is basically another starting wideout. Jeff Fisher can get creative and use him similar to the way Percy Harvin was used in Minnesota. After years and years, the Rams finally select a wideout in the first round.
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Projected Pick: DT Star Lotulelei, Utah
Actual Pick: CB Dee Milliner, Alabama
The Jets have holes all over the place, so whoever they took would have been a nice selection. The late DJ Hayden hype aside, Milliner was always clearly the best cornerback in the NFL. He will immediately slide into the #2 spot opposite Antonio Cromartie. ESPN is trying to drum up comparisons to Darrelle Revis, but that's just poppycock. Milliner is very athletic but needs to work on his ball skills. He is raw.
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Projected Pick: OG Chance Warmack, Alabama
Actual Pick: OG Chance Warmack, Alabama
That is five offensive lineman within the first ten picks, and DJ Fluker will probably be the next pick. Chris Johnson threw the offensive line under the bus following the season and Tennessee listened. Insert Andy Levitre and Chance Warmack. The Titans offensive line is now a major strength, and CJ2.0YPC is out of excuses.
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Projected Pick: OT DJ Fluker, Alabama
Actual Pick:OT DJ Fluker, Alabama
This was the easiest pick for me to guess all draft. The Chargers hold tight and get lucky to land the last immediate starting offensive lineman in the first round. Fluker will strictly be limited to right tackle and may have to move inside to guard. The Chargers line is in shambles and they had to come out of the first round with someone to start somewhere.
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Projected Pick: DT Star Lotulelei, Utah
Actual Pick: CB DJ Hayden, Houston
Hayden was this drafts late riser, with rumblings that the Raiders were going to take him at number three overall. Oakland adds a second round pick and still gets their man. Hayden has recovered from a life threatening heart injury and should be good to go. He is not a great tackler but should collect some interceptions. As long as the Raiders did not go with a quarterback, they were going to upgrade their pathetic roster no matter who they took. The Raiders have great success drafting cornerbacks in the first round.
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Projected Pick: TE Tyler Eifert, Notre Dame
Actual Pick: DT Sheldon Richardson, Missouri
The Jets could have had Star Lotulelei at nose, or Jarvis Jones to upgrade the pass rush, or even Tyler Eifert to help out in the passing game. Instead they take a guy who doesn't really have a spot along their line. I do not see him as a good fit as a 3-4 nose tackle, so Muhammad Wilkerson, who played at a pro bowl level at end last year, will have to move inside. Puzzling pick by the Jets who had so many other needs.
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Projected Pick: DT Star Lotulelei, Utah
Actual Pick: DT Star Lotulelei, Utah
The Panthers are the early winners of this draft, and they did nothing but sit back and wait for a stud who fills their biggest need to fall right into their lap. Teams were obviously scared off by the heart issues, and maybe they wanted more pass rush out of their first round pick, but Lotulelei will be a stud against the run and help the talented Panthers ends get to the quarterback. He might have been a reach in the top five but he is amazing value here.
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Projected Pick: OLB Jarvis Jones, Georgia
Actual Pick: S Kenny Vaccaro, Texas
As long as the Saints took a defender, their team was going to be much improved. The Saints safeties, like the rest of their defense, was putrid. Vaccaro is a hard hitter who attacks ball carriers like a linebacker. He needs to improve his ball skills, but he should be an instant starter for the Saints.
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Projected Pick: QB Ryan Nassib, Syracuse
Actual Pick: QB EJ Manuel, Florida State
I had Manuel mocked to the Bills in the first round quite a bit during my previous mocks. I always had a suspicion that he would wind up being taken in the first round, but I am still surprised they drafted him over Nassib. Manuel has great size and a good arm, but his decision making and accuracy is a concern. He has the talent to be a quality starting quarterback in the NFL. With all of the quarterbacks still on the board, it will be interesting to see if Buffalo made the right choice.
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Projected Pick: OLB Jarvis Jones, Georgia
Actual Pick: OLB Jarvis Jones, Georgia
Jones has been popularly mocked to the Steelers for months, and to no surprise the Steelers land a stud who falls because of bad combine workouts. There is no doubt in my mind that Jones will be a future pro bowler and the next great Pittsburgh Steeler pass rusher. Good teams stay good because of draft picks like this.
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Projected Pick: DT Sharrif Floyd, Florida
Actual Pick: S Eric Reid, LSU
The 49ers were the most likely team to trade up because they have a plethora of picks that they weren't going to use. Reid might be somewhat of a reach here but the Niners are a great judge of talent. Reid has great size and if he can knock some injury concerns has great potential. With teams like the Rams and Bengals in need of a safety, Reid probably would not have been there at pick 31.
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Projected Pick: LB Alec Ogletree, Georgia
Actual Pick: OG/OT Justin Pugh, Syracuse
With the way offensive lineman are flying off the board, Pugh cannot be considered a reach here. The Giants identified the right side of the line as a major weak spot and find help here. Pugh is too small to hold up at left tackle, but he should be able to hold his own at right tackle, or move inside and handle guard.
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Projected Pick: TE Tyler Eifert, Notre Dame
Actual Pick: OG/OT Kyle Long, Oregon
The Bears used lack of offense as an excuse to can Lovie Smith, so I knew they would go offense here. I did not expect Long, who is still a big time project. He has the size to eventually play tackle, but will probably take over for Lance Louis at guard. There is a need there. I still think this is a reach.
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Projected Pick: LB Alec Ogletree, Georgia
Actual Pick: TE Tyler Eifert, Notre Dame
This is a huge surprise to me. I love it though. Cincinnati has tried to surround Andy Dalton with weapons. Eifert is a better player then any of the wide receivers, so why not take a tight end? They now have Eifert to go with Jermaine Gresham. The Patriots have shown you can be successful with two tight ends. The Bengals have Gresham, Eifert and AJ Green. No excuses for Dalton now.
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Projected Pick: DE Bjoern Werner, Florida State
Actual Pick: CB Desmond Trufant, Washington
The Falcons lost Dunta Robinson and Brent Grimes during the off season, so cornerback was an obvious need. I wonder if Trufant is a true number one corner, but he solidified his first round with a nice pre draft process. He has a ton of experience and is the third Trufant brother to play in the NFL, so he has the blood lines.
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Projected Pick: DT Sharrif Floyd, Florida
Actual Pick: DT Sharrif Floyd, Florida
I always wondered why Floyd was considered a top five pick. He is talented but was an underachiever during his Florida career. He is very good value here. Good against the run and decent rushing the passer, he should be a long time starting tackle for the Vikings.
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Projected Pick: CB Xavier Rhodes, Florida State
Actual Pick: DE/OLB Bjoern Werner, Florida State
Right school, wrong player. Werner is a hard worker and should develop into a quality end, but I am not sure he has the speed and cover skills to hold up as a 3-4 outside linebacker. He could bulk up and play end, but if he ends up at linebacker, he still will be better then Erik Walden.
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Projected Pick: CB Xavier Rhodes, Florida State
Actual Pick: CB Xavier Rhodes, Florida State
Rhodes is still a work in progress but I think this is a much much better pick then Manti Te'o. Rhodes has good size and is a fine press corner. The Vikings will hope he can be what Chris Cook has been unable to be.
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Projected Pick: OT Menelik Watson, Florida State
Actual Pick: DE Datone Jones, UCLA
Jones was a late bloomer who solidified a first round grade with his toughness and versatility. The Packers needed to continue to draft defenders as they look to improve a terrible unit. Jones has the frame to bulk up and hold his own as a 3-4 end, and should take over for Ryan Pickett in a year or two.
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Projected Pick: WR DeAndre Hopkins, Clemson
Actual Pick: WR DeAndre Hopkins, Clemson
Wide receiver has been popularly mocked to the Texans, and for good reason. Houston finally drafts a solid compliment to Andre Johnson. Hopkins put up huge numbers for Clemson, and has good strength and nice speed. I think he will end up being the best receiver in this draft. Even better then Tavon Austin.
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Projected Pick: DT Sylvester Williams, North Carolina
Actual Pick: DT Sylvester Williams, North Carolina
Like the Steelers, Texans and Packers, the Broncos stay put and land an instant starter late in the first round. Williams has great size and is a good all around tackle. Defensive tackle has been a big time sore spot for Denver for years, and should become an instant starter.
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Projected Pick: LB Manti Te'o, Notre Dame
Actual Pick: WR Cordarrelle Patterson, Tennessee
The Vikings have passed on NFL Network's love child Manti Te'o three times, all for better prospects. Patterson is a big time project but has the potential to be the best receiver in the draft. He passes the eyeball test with great strength and speed. Scouts very politely called him "dumb" during the pre draft process, and he will be a major work in progress. The Vikings gave up a ton to get him, but they had to come out of this draft with a receiver. Greg Jennings simply is not enough.
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Projected Pick: S Jonathan Cyprien, Florida International
Actual Pick: LB Alec Ogletree, Georgia
The Rams hit a home run with Janoris Jenkins in the second round last year, so they try to strike gold with another talented player with character concerns here. Ogletree would make a very nice fit on the weak side next to James Laurinitis. He is very quick and athletic. Of course, it is the off the field concerns that caused him to fall this far. Scouts described him as a "trainwreck" off the field. Like Jenkins, you will always be concerned that he will "immature" himself out of the league.
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Projected Pick: S Jonathan Cyprien, Florida International
Actual Pick: OG/C Travis Frederick, Wisconsin
Wisconsin has a great track record for interior lineman. Gabe Carimi, Kevin Zeitler, Peter Konz and now Frederick. He is the ninth offensive lineman to go in the first round. After Jonathan Cooper and Chance Warmack went off the board, the Cowboys decided to trade down but still find an upgrade for their line. Frederick can play guard or center but will probably handle the middle for Dallas.
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Projected Pick: S Matt Elam, Florida
Actual Pick: S Matt Elam, Florida
Like Ed Reed, Elam is a compact, hard hitting safety from a Florida school. He is a perfect replacement for Reed and tremendous value here. He should step right in and keep it moving. Don't expect much of a drop off as Reed was more name then game in 2012. Ozzie Newsome does it again.
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I don't think anyone followed this as I updated live, but hopefully a few people read it throughout the night. Enjoy!
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